Great Northern Canaries

There's a tragedy unfolding in that vast stretch of land and water way up in the far North. We here about it from time to time down here in the South. Things like sea ice depletion elicit ominous chills to those who understand what it means. Images of starving polar bears wandering lost like Franklin deep into the taiga tug our heart strings. We hear about developments like Nunavut and land claims if we're interested, but I think for many of us the North remains on the periphery of our awareness. We don't tend to think about what goes on up there because it is outside the realm of consideration unless you're a scientist or work for ConocoPhillips.

But we should care. We should be watching things up there. The effects of global warming are already manifest. Shorelines are eroding and traditional livelihoods are following them. Species are shifting range. Permafrost is melting. What happens there, happens to us.

Now, as Geoff points out, Nunavut [and the rest of the North] is about to face life with in the post-cheap-oil world. Fuel prices have doubled in the past year, but there seems to be no money to pay for it, without going hat in hand to Ottawa:

So what is a territory, that raises more revenue from tobacco taxes than personal income tax, to do?

1- Cut its direct and indirect subsidies?

I'd suggest some subsidies could be cut or eliminated particularly for those living in Iqaluit, Rankin Inlet and Cambridge Bay, the 3 reasonably large regional centers, but even here it would have to be done in a measured and likely income tested fashion. It is helpful to keep in mind when people like me, now from the outside, make suggestions, that out of a population of about 30,000 people Nunavut has about 18,000 tenants in social housing. Just one broad indication that in Nunavut there maybe some special problems with people being able to pay.

2 - Get out of delivering public services that use lots of fuel either directly or indirectly?

I'm not sure what public services that are heavy consumers of fuel could be cut. Do you shut down the schools? The 3 hospitals? The nursing stations or health centers in the more remote communities? No heat for the fire halls, maybe. Stop collecting raw sewage - yes in the Arctic, even large places like Iqaluit, the crap is pumped out of the houses. Stop delivering water to houses, again even in Iqaluit not everyone is on a utilitor system. No more of those routine expensive medical flights for the sick or injured and definitely no medivacs, eh.

3 - Does the GN off-load territorially provided services to local communities - the old trick used by some other governments?

Well I guess, that could be tried, but since the only source of revenue for all communities in Nunavut, with the exception of Iqaluit which can levy property taxes, is the GN. I suspect that idea might be a non-starter.

But what happens next year if oil stays this high or higher? What if the Conservatives do not pony up the cash? Fuel is the lifeblood of the Canadian North. Nunavut and the Northwest Territories, Northern Quebec, Ontario, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are intensley dependent on air links and fuel deliveries. The remoteness of communities and lack of road transport just adds to cost. Distances are vast. The cost of EVERYTHING is already double or more compared to southern prices. Local economies are marginal at best. Many are cottage industries of limited utility, or resource-based industries prone to rapid boom-bust cycles. Many remote communities require the lifeline of air links and cheap energy to survive. As with climate change, the North is acutely vulnerable to energy prices. As with climate change, the North is our sacrificial warning of what is to come.

This change is occurring at a time when the Indigenous peoples of the North are finally begining to define their futures on their terms after hundreds of years of colonial influence. Land claims agreements exist in NWT. Nunavut is one massive project at self-government. But populations have grown and consumer lifestyles have emerged. A capitalist-type class system now exists with economic change and the introduction of multi-national mining and energy companies. All this demands a greater dependence on links to the South to satisfy demand and maintain the present population. As access to southern resources drops with increases in oil prices, the North will undergo yet another shift.

Some will benefit as pressure to exploit gas and oil fields (mostly in around the Beaufort-Delta and parts of the Yukon), increases with oil price. But the majority of Northerners do not live in these regions. The majority of Northerners had nothing to do with causing AGW and depleting ancient sunlight, but they will be among the first to suffer for it. I fear the slow, still teething, recovery from the ravages of colonialism currently underway in the North will end up stunted before maturity.

This is the canary for our civilisation. The air links and dependency of Northern hamlets echoes our globalised interconnected world. As these links become too difficult to maintain, these communities will dissolve. As the rest of the world loses energy and climate shifts, our links dissolve and we fragment. The fate of the North is ours if we don't act. The North is our canary.

(h/t Chet and Geoff)