Wednesday, November 05, 2008

US election reflection (updated)

There is no question Obama's win is an amazing development after these past 8 years of carnage and death. I admit I had moist eyes hearing his concession speech last night. A friend of mine was in the audience. Massed joy and hope is a powerful thing. That said, the hard work hasn't even started yet.

We should keep in mind there are still two and half months of Bush II, almost 50% of the US population voted for the other guy, and the United States is not Canada.

On the first point, the problems of the Bush era will not be gone by January when Obama takes office. It is not possible to predict how well things will go for him. His biggest asset, I believe, is his ability to inspire people. Should the recession turn into a depression, the capacity to motivate people into constructive self-organisation and collective action can make the difference between survival and catastrophe. In this sense, I am not so concerned with what Obama did or did not say policy-wise during the campaign. Given the profound shifts in the global economy, and the shite state of affairs within the US, America may be a very different place in 6 months.

On the second point, the popular vote is split nearly 50/50. The US remains a fanatically fractured country. The first map is the Union-Confederate alignment during the American Civil War. Red (and yellow) and blue are mostly what they are now. The interior West (light blue) was largely in Aboriginal hands at the time. The second map is of state alignments in this election. [maps via wikipedia]
And here is the spread as of 5 November:

With a few exceptions, regional political views have not changed in 150 years. Given the role of race, and the legitimised viciousness of McCain/Palin supporters, this is a problem. How much of one, it remains to be seen.

And lastly, whether President Obama revisits NAFTA, Canada (and the US president) will be under incredible pressure to provide an ailing US with energy and water resources. SPP is not dead. And the event of an socio-economically declining United States may change the discourse on SPP from one of shared prosperity, to one of rescuing our biggest trading partner so that we may save ourselves. Someone I spoke with today raised the point that Canadians' love affair with Obama may blind us from recognising dangerous (for us) policy shifts from his administration.

But, for a moment, I think we can stand to bask in the glow! Something amazing has just happened.

Mmmm: On reflection, I don't think I emphasised enough here the shear miraclitude of Barack Hussein Obama's election. I mean, when I say "amazing" I mean there are no adjectives I can use to describe the googleplexing algorithm of fathomic meaning behind the fact the United States of America has just stepped up to the plate and hit one out of the universe.

It also must be acknowledged that, regardless of what came before, when the United States does finally get its shit together, people walk on the fucking moon. And the whole world lets itself dream of what could be.

No comments: